Data

A note on terminology: in the following tables, when we use the terminology ‘Technology’ and ‘Commodity’, we refer to the use that the OSeMOSYS tool makes of those terms. A ‘technology’ is intended as any physical asset (natural or artificial) that converts one commodity into another, or uses or supplied a commodity. For example, a power plant that uses the hydro resource to produce electricity or a piece of land that uses rainwater and irrigation water and seeds to produce a crop are both ‘technologies’. A ‘commodity’ is anything that flows between these technologies. For example, rainwater, irrigation water, hydro resource, electricity, diesel, drinking water are all commodities.

General

Global drivers

Driver	Units	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2030	2040
Population	Thousands	2447	2489	2530	2567	2604	2910	3347
GDP	Constant $2015 Bill	11.25	10.34	10.7	11.19	11.63	15.31	22.66
GDP growth rate	%		-8%	4%	5%	4%	4%	4%
GDP per capita	$/capita	4597	4152	4229	4358	4468	5261	6771

Demands

All commodities in the agriculture, water supply and energy sector, except for electricity - Units vary, they are indicated in the table

The demands displayed in the table below are included in the model as annual demands without an intra-annual profile. The optimisation, therefore, looks to meet them in any moment of the year. For the energy commodities, the values for 2019 and 2020 are taken from available country balances. For the following years, they are projected proportionally to the drivers listed in the table. For crops and livestock, statistics were available until 2022 and 2021, respectively. The following values were again projected.

Source: for energy commodities, OECD; for crops, livestock and water, the values in the historical years and the projections were agreed with the Technical Working Group during workshops.

Commodity	Description	Unit	Driver 1	Driver 1 coupling	Driver 2	Driver 2 coupling	2023	2030	2040
AGRDSL	Diesel for agriculture	PJ	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	13.25	15.3	18.51
AGRHFO	Heavy fuel oil for agriculture	PJ	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	0.51	0.59	0.71
AGRLPG	LPG for agriculture	PJ	GDP per capita	0.3	Population	1	0.18	0.22	0.27
COMHFO	Heavy fuel oil for commercial	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0	0.08	0.11	0.16
CRPCAB	Cabbage	MTon	GDP per capita	0.1	Population	1	0.01	0.01	0.01
CRPMAI	Maize	MTon	GDP per capita	0.1	Population	1	0.19	0.22	0.26
CRPMTP	Pearl millet	MTon	GDP per capita	0.1	Population	1	0.05	0.05	0.06
CRPONI	Onions	MTon	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	0.03	0.03	0.04
CRPPTW	White potato	MTon	GDP per capita	0.1	Population	1	0.03	0.04	0.05
CRPSOR	Sorghum	MTon	GDP per capita	0.1	Population	1	0	0	0
CRPWHE	Wheat	MTon	GDP per capita	0.1	Population	1	0.14	0.16	0.19
INDBIO	Biomass for industry	PJ	GDP	-0.2	Population	0	1.15	1.09	1
INDDSL	Diesel for industry	TJ	GDP	1	Population	0	3.9	5.13	7.59
INDHFO	Heavy fuel oil for industry	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0	0.08	0.11	0.16
INDLPG	LPG for industry	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0	0.05	0.06	0.09
LVSCTL	Cattle	Thousand heads	GDP per capita	1	Population	0	2.68	3.15	4.06
LVSGOT	Goats	Thousand heads	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	1.31	1.51	1.83
LVSPIG	Pigs	Thousand heads	GDP per capita	0.5	Population	0.5	0.1	0.12	0.14
LVSSHP	Sheep	Thousand heads	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	1.36	1.57	1.9
OTHDSL	Diesl for other uses	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0	3.25	4.27	6.32
OTHLPG	LPG for other uses	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0	0.77	1.02	1.51
RESBIO	Biomass for residential	PJ	GDP per capita	-0.3	Population	1	6.03	6.42	6.84
RESCHC	Charcoal for residential	PJ	GDP per capita	-0.2	Population	1	2.14	2.31	2.53
RESKER	Kerosene for residential	PJ	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	0.1	0.11	0.14
TRADSL	Diesel for transport	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0.2	14.13	19	28.9
TRAGSL	Gasoline for transport	PJ	GDP	0.3	Population	1	14.34	17.4	22.51
TRAHFO	Heavy fuel oil for transport	PJ	GDP	1	Population	0	0.04	0.05	0.08
TRAKER	Kerosene for transport	PJ	GDP per capita	1.5	Population	1	0.12	0.17	0.28
TRALPG	LPG for transport	PJ	GDP per capita	0.2	Population	1	0.23	0.26	0.32
WATMIN	Water for mining	Million m3	Population	1	GDP per capita	0.3	18.7	20.3	25.18
WATRUR	Water for rural uses	Million m3	Population	1	GDP per capita	0.3	11.02	11.4	14.14
WATTOR	Water for tourism	Million m3	Population	1	GDP per capita	0.3	33.88	38.9	48.24
WATURB	Water for urban uses	Million m3	Population	1	GDP per capita	0.3	98.54	117.2	145.35

Electricity - TWh

Source: National Integrated Resource Plan Review and Update (October 2022)

The electricity demand for final uses is aggregated for all sectors.

Commodity	Description	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2030	2040
ELC002	Electricity for final uses	4.33	4.48	4.65	4.79	4.94	5.96	7.4

Energy supply system

Source: National Integrated Resource Plan Review and Update (October 2022)

Techno-economic data for electricity supply technologies - units indicated in the table

Land system

Harvested area of crops

In the first years of the model, for which historical data is available, the harvested area of the crops is fixed and set as equal to the historical values. These values are retrieved from a mix of national data (for wheat, maize and pearl millet) and FAOSTAT database (for all the others). They are given below. In the years that follow, the model is allowed to gradually shift between rainfed and irrigated production for each crop, based on the relative costs of production and resource availability.

Harvested area (Ha)	2019	2020	2021	2022
Cabbage - Rainfed	0	0	0	0
Cabbage - Irrigated	185	184	185	186
Dates - Rainfed	0	0	0	0
Dates - Irrigated	137	136	136	136
Grapes - Rainfed	0	0	0	0
Grapes - Irrigated	7055	7642	7830	8018
Maize - Rainfed	71081	5365	19635	16367
Maize - Irrigated	4161	2431	3599	4793
Millet - Rainfed	256187	69158	351335	314353
Millet - Irrigated	0	0	0	0
Onions - Rainfed	0	0	0	0
Onions - Irrigated	1453	1463	1462	1461
Potatoes - Rainfed	0	0	0	0
Potatoes - Irrigated	1175	1187	1188	1189
Sorghum - Rainfed	21782	5425	17294	20764
Sorghum - Irrigated	0	0	0	0
Wheat - Rainfed	153	93	333	870
Wheat - Irrigated	1384	918	1473	2546

The split between input levels (low, intermediate and high) is according to interactions with the Technical Working Group and own assumptions and is as follows.

upcoming

Yields, irrigation need and evapotranspiration

The yields, irrigation and evapotranspiration are the output of a calibration process. The original data is a mix of national data (for the yield of the grains), FAOSTAT (for the yield of the other crops) and GAEZ v3.0 data (for evapotranspiration and irrigation need). The values are then recalculated based on the yield ratio (ratio between the actual yield from national data and FAOSTAT and the agro-climatic attainable yield from GAEZ).

Crop	Description	Yield (Million ton / 1000 sq km)	Irrigation need (Million m3 per 1000 sq km)	Evapotranspiration (Million m3 per 1000 sq km)
LNDCABHI	cabbage - high input, irrigated	3.304	1106	955
LNDCABHR	cabbage - high input, rainfed	0.17	0	72
LNDCABII	cabbage - intermediate input, irrigated	2.281	1065	914
LNDCABIR	cabbage - intermediate input, rainfed	0.126	0	78
LNDCABLR	cabbage - low input, rainfed	0.071	0	75
LNDDATHI	dates - high input, irrigated	0.254	500	738
LNDGRPHI	grapes - high input, irrigated	0.421	507	745
LNDMAIHI	maize - high input, irrigated	0.998	969	1008
LNDMAIHR	maize - high input, rainfed	0.218	0	228
LNDMAIII	maize - intermediate input, irrigated	0.645	924	965
LNDMAIIR	maize - intermediate input, rainfed	0.151	0	237
LNDMAILR	maize - low input, rainfed	0.068	0	247
LNDMTPHI	pearl millet - high input, irrigated	0.15	190	216
LNDMTPHR	pearl millet - high input, rainfed	0.109	0	129
LNDMTPII	pearl millet - intermediate input, irrigated	0.086	183	209
LNDMTPIR	pearl millet - intermediate input, rainfed	0.065	0	132
LNDMTPLR	pearl millet - low input, rainfed	0.025	0	135
LNDONIHI	onions - high input, irrigated	1.955	696	742
LNDONIHR	onions - high input, rainfed	0.345	0	157
LNDONIII	onions - intermediate input, irrigated	1.585	664	710
LNDONIIR	onions - intermediate input, rainfed	0.303	0	163
LNDONILR	onions - low input, rainfed	0.256	0	172
LNDPTWHI	white potatoes - high input, irrigated	1.489	764	743
LNDPTWHR	white potatoes - high input, rainfed	0.118	0	95
LNDPTWII	white potatoes - intermediate input, irrigated	1.019	733	713
LNDPTWIR	white potatoes - intermediate input, rainfed	0.086	0	102
LNDPTWLR	white potatoes - low input, rainfed	0.051	0	112
LNDSORHI	sorghum - high input, irrigated	0.32	632	738
LNDSORHR	sorghum - high input, rainfed	0.04	0	72
LNDSORII	sorghum - intermediate input, irrigated	0.205	600	708
LNDSORIR	sorghum - intermediate input, rainfed	0.027	0	75
LNDSORLR	sorghum - low input, rainfed	0.011	0	80
LNDWHEHI	wheat - high input, irrigated	0.537	571	547
LNDWHEHR	wheat - high input, rainfed	0.059	0	108
LNDWHEII	wheat - intermediate input, irrigated	0.335	548	524
LNDWHEIR	wheat - intermediate input, rainfed	0.039	0	113
LNDWHELR	wheat - low input, rainfed	0.02	0	119

Costs of agricultural production

The table below shows costs for the crops included in the model. Note that for each crop we gave the model the possibility to optimise the water input (irrigation vs rain) and mechanisation (low, intermediate and high level of use of machineries, fertilisers, chemicals, etc.). We included in this cost category the cost of seeds, labor, fertilisers, chemicals and use of machineries.

Source: Namibian Agronomic Board (NAB). Data on the cost of seeds, labor, fertilizers, chemicals, agricultural equipment was available from NAB for the main grains and some horiculture crops. This was categorised into the three cost categories available in OSeMOSYS (Variable costs, fixed costs and capital costs). The data had a reference yield for each crop. We used the data as it was for the level of input (for that crop) which had the closest yield to the reference one. Then we made assumptions of higher / lower costs for other input levels. E.g. if the cost data available for maize was assumed to be the one of maize with irrigation and high mechanisation, for maize with lower mechanisation the cost components related to equipment, fertilisers and chemicals were reduced by a certain percentage.

Variable costs - in Million USD per 1000 sq. km

Technology	descripion	2023	2030	2040
LNDBEAHI	beans high input irrigated	604.3	604.3	604.3
LNDBEAHR	beans high input rainfed	464.6	464.6	464.6
LNDBEAII	beans intermediate input irrigated	562.3	562.3	562.3
LNDBEAIR	beans intermediate input rainfed	394.7	394.7	394.7
LNDBEALR	beans low input rainfed	280.0	280.0	280.0
LNDCABHI	cabbage high input irrigated	700.6	700.6	700.6
LNDCABHR	cabbage high input rainfed	533.4	533.4	533.4
LNDCABII	cabbage intermediate input irrigated	700.6	700.6	700.6
LNDCABIR	cabbage intermediate input rainfed	449.7	449.7	449.7
LNDCABLR	cabbage low input rainfed	302.9	302.9	302.9
LNDMAIHI	maize high input irrigated	71.6	71.6	71.6
LNDMAIHR	maize high input rainfed	45.0	45.0	45.0
LNDMAIII	maize intermediate input irrigated	58.3	58.3	58.3
LNDMAIIR	maize intermediate input rainfed	31.7	31.7	31.7
LNDMAILR	maize low input rainfed	14.8	14.8	14.8
LNDMTPHI	pearl millet high input irrigated	119.8	119.8	119.8
LNDMTPHR	pearl millet high input rainfed	68.5	68.5	68.5
LNDMTPII	pearl millet intermediate input irrigated	94.2	94.2	94.2
LNDMTPIR	pearl millet intermediate input rainfed	42.9	42.9	42.9
LNDMTPLR	pearl millet low input rainfed	26.0	26.0	26.0
LNDOLIHI	olives high input irrigated	208.7	208.7	208.7
LNDOLIHR	olives high input rainfed	147.9	147.9	147.9
LNDOLIII	olives intermediate input irrigated	205.2	205.2	205.2
LNDOLIIR	olives intermediate input rainfed	133.0	133.0	133.0
LNDOLILR	olives low input rainfed	105.2	105.2	105.2
LNDONIHI	onions high input irrigated	761.3	761.3	761.3
LNDONIHR	onions high input rainfed	580.6	580.6	580.6
LNDONIII	onions intermediate input irrigated	670.9	670.9	670.9
LNDONIIR	onions intermediate input rainfed	490.3	490.3	490.3
LNDONILR	onions low input rainfed	340.2	340.2	340.2
LNDPTSHI	sweet potatoes high input irrigated	351.0	351.0	351.0
LNDPTSHR	sweet potatoes high input rainfed	279.7	279.7	279.7
LNDPTSII	sweet potatoes intermediate input irrigated	315.3	315.3	315.3
LNDPTSIR	sweet potatoes intermediate input rainfed	244.1	244.1	244.1
LNDPTSLR	sweet potatoes low input rainfed	196.9	196.9	196.9
LNDPTWHI	white potatoes high input irrigated	351.0	351.0	351.0
LNDPTWHR	white potatoes high input rainfed	279.7	279.7	279.7
LNDPTWII	white potatoes intermediate input irrigated	315.3	315.3	315.3
LNDPTWIR	white potatoes intermediate input rainfed	244.1	244.1	244.1
LNDPTWLR	white potatoes low input rainfed	196.9	196.9	196.9
LNDSORHI	sorghum high input irrigated	119.8	119.8	119.8
LNDSORHR	sorghum high input rainfed	68.5	68.5	68.5
LNDSORII	sorghum intermediate input irrigated	94.2	94.2	94.2
LNDSORIR	sorghum intermediate input rainfed	42.9	42.9	42.9
LNDSORLR	sorghum low input rainfed	26.0	26.0	26.0
LNDWHEHI	wheat high input irrigated	182.2	182.2	182.2
LNDWHEHR	wheat high input rainfed	128.5	128.5	128.5
LNDWHEII	wheat intermediate input irrigated	155.3	155.3	155.3
LNDWHEIR	wheat intermediate input rainfed	101.6	101.6	101.6
LNDWHELR	wheat low input rainfed	69.9	69.9	69.9

Fixed costs - in Million USD per 1000 sq. km

We included in this cost category salary costs.

Technology	Descripion	2023	2030	2040
LNDBEAHI	beans high input irrigated	234.9	234.9	234.9
LNDBEAHR	beans high input rainfed	212.6	212.6	212.6
LNDBEAII	beans intermediate input irrigated	291.2	291.2	291.2
LNDBEAIR	beans intermediate input rainfed	201.4	201.4	201.4
LNDBEALR	beans low input rainfed	190.3	190.3	190.3
LNDCABHI	cabbage high input irrigated	217.8	217.8	217.8
LNDCABHR	cabbage high input rainfed	192.9	192.9	192.9
LNDCABII	cabbage intermediate input irrigated	407.7	407.7	407.7
LNDCABIR	cabbage intermediate input rainfed	180.4	180.4	180.4
LNDCABLR	cabbage low input rainfed	167.9	167.9	167.9
LNDMAIHI	maize high input irrigated	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDMAIHR	maize high input rainfed	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDMAIII	maize intermediate input irrigated	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDMAIIR	maize intermediate input rainfed	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDMAILR	maize low input rainfed	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDMTPHI	pearl millet high input irrigated	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDMTPHR	pearl millet high input rainfed	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDMTPII	pearl millet intermediate input irrigated	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDMTPIR	pearl millet intermediate input rainfed	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDMTPLR	pearl millet low input rainfed	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDOLIHI	olives high input irrigated	16.3	16.3	16.3
LNDOLIHR	olives high input rainfed	9.1	9.1	9.1
LNDOLIII	olives intermediate input irrigated	9.6	9.6	9.6
LNDOLIIR	olives intermediate input rainfed	7.4	7.4	7.4
LNDOLILR	olives low input rainfed	6.7	6.7	6.7
LNDONIHI	onions high input irrigated	252.1	252.1	252.1
LNDONIHR	onions high input rainfed	226.8	226.8	226.8
LNDONIII	onions intermediate input irrigated	239.5	239.5	239.5
LNDONIIR	onions intermediate input rainfed	214.2	214.2	214.2
LNDONILR	onions low input rainfed	201.5	201.5	201.5
LNDPTSHI	sweet potatoes high input irrigated	234.7	234.7	234.7
LNDPTSHR	sweet potatoes high input rainfed	218.1	218.1	218.1
LNDPTSII	sweet potatoes intermediate input irrigated	226.4	226.4	226.4
LNDPTSIR	sweet potatoes intermediate input rainfed	209.8	209.8	209.8
LNDPTSLR	sweet potatoes low input rainfed	201.5	201.5	201.5
LNDPTWHI	white potatoes high input irrigated	234.7	234.7	234.7
LNDPTWHR	white potatoes high input rainfed	218.1	218.1	218.1
LNDPTWII	white potatoes intermediate input irrigated	226.4	226.4	226.4
LNDPTWIR	white potatoes intermediate input rainfed	209.8	209.8	209.8
LNDPTWLR	white potatoes low input rainfed	201.5	201.5	201.5
LNDSORHI	sorghum high input irrigated	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDSORHR	sorghum high input rainfed	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDSORII	sorghum intermediate input irrigated	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDSORIR	sorghum intermediate input rainfed	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDSORLR	sorghum low input rainfed	0.0	0.0	0.0
LNDWHEHI	wheat high input irrigated	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDWHEHR	wheat high input rainfed	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDWHEII	wheat intermediate input irrigated	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDWHEIR	wheat intermediate input rainfed	31.2	31.2	31.2
LNDWHELR	wheat low input rainfed	31.2	31.2	31.2

Capital costs - in Million USD per 1000 sq. km

We calculated these costs starting from the depreciation for equipment costs (category ‘mechanisation’ in the NAB data) and assuming a useful life of 15 years.

Technology	Descripion	2023	2030	2040
LNDBEAHI	beans high input irrigated	1731.3	1731.3	1731.3
LNDBEAHR	beans high input rainfed	1009.3	1009.3	1009.3
LNDBEAII	beans intermediate input irrigated	1513.9	1513.9	1513.9
LNDBEAIR	beans intermediate input rainfed	504.6	504.6	504.6
LNDBEALR	beans low input rainfed	201.9	201.9	201.9
LNDCABHI	cabbage high input irrigated	2074.6	2074.6	2074.6
LNDCABHR	cabbage high input rainfed	1037.3	1037.3	1037.3
LNDCABII	cabbage intermediate input irrigated	1556.0	1556.0	1556.0
LNDCABIR	cabbage intermediate input rainfed	518.7	518.7	518.7
LNDCABLR	cabbage low input rainfed	207.5	207.5	207.5
LNDMAIHI	maize high input irrigated	14.3	14.3	14.3
LNDMAIHR	maize high input rainfed	7.2	7.2	7.2
LNDMAIII	maize intermediate input irrigated	10.7	10.7	10.7
LNDMAIIR	maize intermediate input rainfed	3.6	3.6	3.6
LNDMAILR	maize low input rainfed	1.4	1.4	1.4
LNDMTPHI	pearl millet high input irrigated	119.2	119.2	119.2
LNDMTPHR	pearl millet high input rainfed	71.5	71.5	71.5
LNDMTPII	pearl millet intermediate input irrigated	89.4	89.4	89.4
LNDMTPIR	pearl millet intermediate input rainfed	41.7	41.7	41.7
LNDMTPLR	pearl millet low input rainfed	11.9	11.9	11.9
LNDOLIHI	olives high input irrigated	228.0	228.0	228.0
LNDOLIHR	olives high input rainfed	222.0	222.0	222.0
LNDOLIII	olives intermediate input irrigated	225.0	225.0	225.0
LNDOLIIR	olives intermediate input rainfed	178.3	178.3	178.3
LNDOLILR	olives low input rainfed	157.7	157.7	157.7
LNDONIHI	onions high input irrigated	1627.8	1627.8	1627.8
LNDONIHR	onions high input rainfed	1244.8	1244.8	1244.8
LNDONIII	onions intermediate input irrigated	1867.1	1867.1	1867.1
LNDONIIR	onions intermediate input rainfed	622.4	622.4	622.4
LNDONILR	onions low input rainfed	249.0	249.0	249.0
LNDPTSHI	sweet potatoes high input irrigated	1491.5	1491.5	1491.5
LNDPTSHR	sweet potatoes high input rainfed	745.7	745.7	745.7
LNDPTSII	sweet potatoes intermediate input irrigated	1118.6	1118.6	1118.6
LNDPTSIR	sweet potatoes intermediate input rainfed	372.9	372.9	372.9
LNDPTSLR	sweet potatoes low input rainfed	149.2	149.2	149.2
LNDPTWHI	white potatoes high input irrigated	1491.5	1491.5	1491.5
LNDPTWHR	white potatoes high input rainfed	745.7	745.7	745.7
LNDPTWII	white potatoes intermediate input irrigated	1118.6	1118.6	1118.6
LNDPTWIR	white potatoes intermediate input rainfed	372.9	372.9	372.9
LNDPTWLR	white potatoes low input rainfed	149.2	149.2	149.2
LNDSORHI	sorghum high input irrigated	119.2	119.2	119.2
LNDSORHR	sorghum high input rainfed	71.5	71.5	71.5
LNDSORII	sorghum intermediate input irrigated	89.4	89.4	89.4
LNDSORIR	sorghum intermediate input rainfed	41.7	41.7	41.7
LNDSORLR	sorghum low input rainfed	11.9	11.9	11.9
LNDWHEHI	wheat high input irrigated	23.4	23.4	23.4
LNDWHEHR	wheat high input rainfed	11.7	11.7	11.7
LNDWHEII	wheat intermediate input irrigated	17.5	17.5	17.5
LNDWHEIR	wheat intermediate input rainfed	5.8	5.8	5.8
LNDWHELR	wheat low input rainfed	2.3	2.3	2.3